New Mexico's "Clear Horizons Act" would destroy its oil industry and standard of living

Originally published: February 6, 2026

More than any other state, New Mexico depends on its oil industry, now #2 in the country, which provides 1/3 of NM’s budget. And the entire US depends on NM for low fuel prices.

Yet NM lawmakers are considering a “net-zero by 2050” mandate that would shut down the industry.

The “Clear Horizons Act” would demolish New Mexico’s oil industry

• The “Clear Horizons Act” requires New Mexico to dramatically reduce its GHG emissions: to 45% below 2005 levels by 2030, 75% below 2005 levels by 2040, and “net zero” by 2050.¹

  If this is passed it will require large parts of the New Mexico oil industry to shut down.

• NM has already cut GHG emissions by >21% from 2005 levels²—at significant cost.

  E.g., NM recently shut down a 847 MW coal plant that supplied 12-15% of NM electricity.³ Now prices are expected to rise because the utility is trying to replace it with wind/solar + expensive storage.⁴

• “Clear Horizons” would require NM oil operators to eliminate emissions from their production via electrification. This accomplishes virtually nothing emissions-wise since most of oil’s emissions are from burning it.

  But it has the enormous cost of shutting down oil production.

• Electrifying NM oil production would involve a >3X increase in the region’s electricity demand⁵ and require far more fossil fuel electricity.

  This is totally unrealistic given that NM has mandated “net zero” electricity and made it very hard to build and connect new power plants.

• Myth: NM oil operators can meet “Clear Horizons” emissions standards by capturing their CO2.

  Truth: No they can’t, because carbon capture is extremely expensive as well as scarce.⁶

• Myth: NM oil operators can meet “Clear Horizons” emissions standards by purchasing GHG offsets.

  Truth: No they can’t, because these GHG offsets are required to be from NM sources⁷, and there aren’t enough to go around near-term.

• Why should we care if the New Mexico industry can’t comply with the “Clear Horizons Act” and has to shut down production?

  Because this harms not only the entire state of New Mexico but also the entire US through its outsized effect on US oil production.

Sabotaging NM oil is destructive for US oil production

• At 15% of US production, New Mexico is the #2 oil producing state behind Texas—but its production is growing far more quickly than Texas’s.

  New Mexico’s oil production rose by 119% from 2019 to 2024, while Texas’s rose by only 11%.⁸

• Incredibly, New Mexico now produces more oil than Mexico and over 2X more oil than Venezuela. If New Mexico were a country, it would be the 11th biggest global oil producer.⁹

• New Mexico has driven much of the US oil production growth in recent years. Two counties in NM accounted for 52% of the increase in US oil production between 2020 and 2024.¹⁰

• American oil is an enormously important industry that keeps us secure and keeps gasoline prices low. And the New Mexico oil industry is a critical part of it.

  The “Clear Horizons Act’s” attack on NM oil is an attack on American energy dominance and American energy security.

Sabotaging NM oil is destructive for the state of New Mexico

• While the sabotage of New Mexico oil by the “Clear Horizons Act” harms all of America, it is particularly destructive for the state of New Mexico, whose economy and therefore whose people would be in infinitely worse shape without its prolific oil industry.

• Oil and gas tax revenue pays for >1/3 of New Mexico’s budget.¹¹ This means many NM government services—such as education, childcare, health services, roads, etc—are heavily dependent on oil and gas.

• New Mexico’s oil and gas jobs are highly productive as well as high-paying. NM oil and gas extraction jobs pay >2x the average NM wage, and oilfield services jobs pay ~1.5x the average NM wage.¹²

• In addition to sabotaging the NM oil industry the “Clear Horizons Act” threatens any large project that uses a significant amount of fossil fuels or requires a significant amount of reliable, fossil fuel electricity. E.g., data centers.

• Consider Project Jupiter, the new data center campus in Doña Ana County that is set to bring 100s of billions in investment and 1000s of high-paying jobs to NM.¹³

  There’s little chance this project would survive under “Clear Horizons” given its need for reliable natural gas power.

• Consider New Era’s new huge 7GW data center project in Lea County, New Mexico. This project will be effectively banned under the “Clear Horizons Act,” given that it will require at least 2GW of reliable natural gas power to operate.¹⁴

• By requiring costly emissions reductions across the NM economy, the “Clear Horizons Act” is guaranteed to raise the cost of living in NM.

  The people of New Mexico (which has a median household income of $64,140, the fourth lowest in the country) cannot afford that.¹⁵

• Myth: The “Clear Horizons Act” makes New Mexicans more resilient to climate danger.

  Truth: New Mexico cannot affect climate conditions no matter how much it reduces its GHG emissions. “Clear Horizons” only makes New Mexicans poorer and therefore less resilient to climate danger.

• Myth: New Mexico’s recent “climate” policies have shown that NM can “achieve economic growth and reduce pollution at the same time.”

  Truth: NM’s economic growth has been in spite of not because of these policies, which ban some economic activity and make the rest more expensive!

The New Mexican government needs to unleash New Mexican oil, starting by rejecting the “Clear Horizons Act”

• NM oil is already being sabotaged by some of the strictest anti-oil policies in the country—e.g., requiring operators to capture much of their methane emissions, requiring “net-zero” electricity by 2045.

  But the “Clear Horizons Act” would be the most destructive policy to date.

• New Mexico should recognize that oil is essential to New Mexico’s prosperity, and unleash it by repealing the existing anti-oil policies (e.g., “Methane Waste Rule,” “Energy Transition Act”).

  But first New Mexico must reject the “Clear Horizons Act.”

• Citizens and lawmakers of New Mexico, please don’t sabotage your energy future—or we will all pay the price.

  Tell New Mexico Senators and Representatives to unleash New Mexican oil, starting by voting NO on the “Clear Horizons Act.”

Michelle Hung and Daniil Gorbatenko contributed to this piece.

References